Erdogan's irreversible mistake

Mohammad Alizadeh / International affair Analyst – Few people can forget the incident of the downing of a Russian Su-24 by a Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet (which occurred on November 24, 2015). The Turkish president was so confident in his action that he proudly announced the news to the public media through his office, the Turkish presidential office.

Citing Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, Erdogan forewarned Moscow in the early hours of the crisis that if the Russians retaliated against Ankara's move, other NATO countries would be called in to help defend Turkey. The direct backing of other NATO members against the aggressor is justified by Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which states that (military) action against one member of the alliance is equivalent to a declaration of war against all members.

Erdogan, who considered NATO a strong fortress to protect his illusory regional expansionism, realized his miscalculation when the North Atlantic Treaty member states did not take a single step to defend Turkey against Moscow's threats after the downing of the Russian Sukhoi-24. Even some NATO members, such as Germany and Greece, blamed Erdogan for this crisis and avoided entering the conflict, even to the extent of issuing a simple statement in favor of Ankara. The result of the incident was that Erdogan apologized to Russia for his actions and was even forced to meet Vladimir Putin to appease and express renewed friendship.

Erdogan's crude and dangerous dreams were crushed in 2018 when the self-proclaimed ISIS caliphate in Syria and Iraq was destroyed and the last stronghold of Takfiri terrorists was taken by the fervent fighters of the Resistance Front, leaving no room for the Takfiri terrorist-terrorist elements associated with Ankara and its regional and trans-regional partners. Between 2011 and 2018, Erdogan made significant investments to topple the Syrian regime and establish himself as the dominant force in this Arab nation, but he was crushed.

One cannot expect more, of course, from a politician who has guided his nation along the one-way road between Ankara and Brussels and the illusion of official EU membership since 2005! It appears that Erdogan's ideals in his mind and the reality in Turkey today are separated by a gap longer than the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, which even the experience of multiple foreign policy setbacks has not been able to bridge.

The Turkish president now appears to be unable to adapt to his own environment and believes that he has won the recent events in his neighbor, Syria. Erdogan thinks that everything is going his way and that he needs to get ready to win over Sultans Suleiman and Abdulhamid as quickly as possible. Without understanding the repercussions of projecting his thoughts into reality, the fictional Recep Pasha now sees himself as an unmatched politician.

This time, the crisis caused by Turkey's agency and the grand Washington-Tel Aviv roadmap in the Levant will have far more severe consequences for the haughty Turkish president, and perhaps Erdogan will realize his mistake when there is no more opportunity to make up for the losses. One of Erdogan's primary presumptions is that he has the authority to control the self-created crisis in Syria. However, the difficult experiences of the past and recent years demonstrate that Erdogan has a long and wide hand in creating crises, but he is always weak and vulnerable when managing one himself.